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 Handicapping Races

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celinedion



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Join date : 2014-05-22

PostSubject: Re: Handicapping Races   Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:05 am

I imagine there would be profit to be made from the ratings...but as I said you really need to have sufficient data for each track to find the nuggets....I will start putting in the results each day you put up the ratings ( thanks for today' )...But it will take time to build up the data.....Did you find anything that worked before you got hacked? If you would rather not disclose that's fine
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PostSubject: Re: Handicapping Races   Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:14 am

celinedion wrote:
I imagine there would be profit to be made from the ratings...but as I said you really need to have sufficient data for each track to find the nuggets....I will start putting in the results each day you put up the ratings ( thanks for today' )...But it will take time to build up the data.....Did you find anything that worked before you got hacked?  If you would rather not disclose that's fine


I have put results up in the free ratings forum as requested. We have a working system that has taken years to fine tune, however most people on here are lurkers and don't bother to post or get involved in sharing information so i will not give away all my hard work for free to these people. I will however help people who actively get involved by offering advice and guidance.

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celinedion



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PostSubject: Re: Handicapping Races   Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:40 pm

I have always been interested in Greyhounds and often thought there must be a way of making some cash off them....I have over time paid people to make me software to collect results....This was working great till a year ago when Racing Post changed their website...now it won't collect anymore....I did write to the person who wrote the software but never got a reply....I think I have about 360,000 race results..However they are only Trap results I never had the data that you have on your spreadsheets...I have somewhere trap % for all tracks from the data I collected...Pity the software stopped working or I would have still been collecting....I've even had spreadsheets made for Gruss....but even with all that never really been able to make money on the doggies.......I would like to explore the Dutching side of it.....So much that can be done....but still might not make money
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PostSubject: Re: Handicapping Races   Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:57 pm

I too have always been interested in dog racing, and could always spot my fair share of winners so i invested a hell of a lot of time into collecting and analyzing results to come up with my own handicapping method. It makes me laugh when you see on ebay and the like people selling greyhound software systems for £20. If it worked in any way they would be worth £2000 or more. Dutching can turn a good profit but can get to big stakes if you chase your losses using dutching. In my experience any dutching 3 dogs system will work as long as the loss cycle doesn't run more than 6 losses in a row otherwise the bettor is then in trouble.

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celinedion



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PostSubject: Handicapping Races   Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:20 pm

Could you explain what you mean by "handicapping system" I always thought that greyhounds were handicapped by the grade they ran in and the trap they were allocated....That's why I've always concentrated on the grade & trap....Should I really concentrate on something else?.....I have a book I bought from America about sectional timing and that the greyhound to the first bend wins lots of races...However to buy this course was like £3000 that I never had...so I ain't got it.......If I was to concentrate on dutching which of your criteria would you say was best to use...If I was to say use 3 of the 6.....Or do you say collect the data and work it out for yourself SmileSmileSmile

Average Time Fastest Time Last Time Out Split First Bend Best In Grade
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PostSubject: Re: Handicapping Races   Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:10 am

celinedion wrote:
Could you explain what you mean by "handicapping system"  I always thought that greyhounds were handicapped by the grade they ran in and the trap they were allocated....That's why I've always concentrated on the grade & trap....Should I really concentrate on something else?.....I have a book I bought from America  about sectional timing and that the greyhound to the first bend wins lots of races...However to buy this course was like £3000  that I never had...so I ain't got it.......If I was to concentrate on dutching  which of your criteria would you say was best to use...If I was to say use 3 of the 6.....Or do you say   collect the data and work it out for yourself SmileSmileSmile

Average Time Fastest Time Last Time Out Split First Bend Best In Grade

It is all about getting into the thinking of the grader let's take a grade 3 race for example. although it is grade 3 an handicappers job is to determine the grade within a grade to establish which dogs are in the handicappers opinion actually grade 3 material.

Trap 1 - Is a middle of the road A3 dog it wins now and again but usually finishes mid division
Trap 2 - Has won a couple of  A4 races and has been upgraded
Trap 3 - Has won at A3 and been placed a number of times
Trap 4 - Has raced at A3 and won but has been finding lots of in race trouble and has been starting in Trap 2
Trap 5 - Has been downgraded from A2 and has won at A3 quite consistently
Trap 6 - Is a middle of the road A3 dog it wins now and again but usually finishes mid division

From this the handicapper could assume

Trap 1 is more likely a  grade 4 dog and will need everything to go in it's favour or trouble at the 1st bend to stand a chance of winning
Trap 2 is a solid A4 grade dog & could show more improvement and be considered A3 grade
Trap 3 is an A3 grade dog and can win given the right circumstances
Trap 4 is an A3 grade dog but needs to avoid trouble to win and the change of box could be the key
Trap 5 is an A3 grade dog and can win given the right circumstances and the drop back in grade
Trap 6 is more likely a grade 4 dog and will need everything to go in it's favour or trouble at the 1st bend to stand a chance of winning
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